Capturing the Superheavy booster in mid-air was an amazing achievement for SpaceX; But until the completion of the construction of the starship, there are still many other obstacles.
The stunning and spectacular containment of the first stage of the giant Starship rocket late last month by two mechanical arms was a significant step forward in SpaceX’s efforts to forever change humanity’s relationship with the skies.
But the interception of the starship, though an extremely impressive event, represented only one step in a long journey. SpaceX seeks cheap, frequent, and reliable Starship launches, and strives for a day when rockets can be regularly picked up by a launch tower, placed on a launch pad, refueled, and launched again within hours. According to SpaceX, these efforts will one day culminate with the landing of starships on the Moon and Mars.
Critics say Starship is an inefficient rocket because it requires massive refueling in near-Earth orbit to travel anywhere in the solar system. For example, to fully fill a starship’s fuel tank on a lunar mission that involves landing humans on the lunar surface and returning them to lunar orbit, more than 10 tanker or refueling starships would probably need to be launched.
In contrast, Starship proponents believe that the prospect of flying multiple rockets in a short period of time seems impractical in the traditional space paradigm where launches are costly, few and uncertain. Such criticism will seem less salient if we imagine that SpaceX will be able to launch dozens of Starships in a matter of weeks or so over the next few years.
The docking of the Superheavy booster on October 13 at the Starbase facility in South Texas was a major step closer to frequent and rapid Starship flight. The Superhigh’s recovery confirmed the bold idea that the launch tower would not only support the missile before liftoff, but also intercept it in mid-air minutes later. Until two years ago, such an idea seemed strange and unattainable. But SpaceX has now proven that its giant booster doesn’t need cumbersome landing pads and can eliminate the days needed to inspect and return a landed rocket to the launch site. Reducing the weight of the rocket and shortening the preparation time are great achievements for Starship.
What is the next step now? Eric Berger, the senior space editor at Erztechnika website, has described in his new note a possible vision of the milestones and main goals of the Starship construction program in the next few years. These goals include all the expected stages in the development of the Starship before testing the capability of landing humans on the moon in the Artemis program and the start of flight test missions to Mars. Estimated dates provided for each target are merely best possible guesses and are likely to be incorrect.
Raptor engine restart during flight (November 2024)
To date, Starship has yet to fly into orbit as a superheavy upper stage. The second stage was lost during the first three test flights, and on the fourth and fifth flights it managed to make a controlled reentry over the Indian Ocean.
The main reason Starship didn’t go into orbit during previous test flights and make multiple orbits is because SpaceX and the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) wanted to make sure the rocket was safely returned to Earth and landed in a remote area of the ocean. A starship is huge and pieces of it falling on Earth, especially in populated areas, can be catastrophic. For a controlled reentry of the Starship into the atmosphere, SpaceX must demonstrate the ability to re-ignite the rocket’s Raptor engines in space to perform a precise deorbit maneuver.
During Starship’s third test flight in March 2024, SpaceX planned to ignite one or more Raptor engines in flight; But this attempt was stopped when the rocket went out of control. SpaceX did not perform the desired test in the last two test flights; Because engineering teams are focused on improving the second stage’s re-entry capabilities.
However, SpaceX may restart one or more engines during the sixth test flight or shortly thereafter. Successful completion of this task will allow SpaceX to begin orbital flights of Starship and possibly launch Starlink satellites with this rocket in the first half of 2025.
SpaceX has now moved the Starship and the special superhelicopter for the sixth flight to the launch pad and is ready to launch them. Thanks to FAA approval, the company announced last week that it expects to make Starship’s next flight on November 18.
Starship Landing on Earth (Mid to Late 2025)
In the fifth test flight, SpaceX demonstrated the ability to land the Starship in the target area in the Indian Ocean. We do know that the company placed a camera on a hovercraft to track the rocket’s return to Earth and later released footage of the event.
The precision landing capability of the starship enables the recovery of this missile after launch. Elon Musk has previously hinted at a Starship launch as early as 2025, possibly with a South Texas launch tower. (Starship does not yet have any launch or containment towers elsewhere in the world.) However, SpaceX will likely face legal hurdles to get Starship to its Starbase facility.
Unlike the superheavy booster that flies over the Gulf of Mexico and gets the green light to return to the beach launch pad just seconds before attempting to land, the starship on its way to Starbase will inevitably fly over Mexico (probably from near the populous city of Monterey) and Texas flies; As a result, SpaceX must ensure that large pieces of its rocket do not fall over land when returning to Earth.
For this reason, SpaceX may try to land the starship vertically in another location first. There are rumors of cooperation with Australia, and according to a familiar source, SpaceX has been patrolling and searching the Johnston Aquifer in the Pacific Ocean earlier this year. This atoll and other similar uninhabited places allow for a safer return of the starship to Earth. However, such an approach requires the use of landing pads.
In the future, SpaceX will undoubtedly build several versions of the Starship. The “tanker” starships, which will be used to deliver fuel to a large depot in near-Earth orbit, lack landing pads and will be picked up by launch towers upon return to Texas or Florida. But in order to land on the Moon or Mars, SpaceX will eventually need to add props to the rocket.
The question is whether SpaceX is now moving forward with the Starship Bases project to conduct landing tests, or whether it plans to seek permission to anchor the Starship in South Texas for the time being. It is possible that the final decision has not been made yet.
HLS orbital fuel transfer test (late 2025)
Achieving the ability to transfer fuel from one starship to another in orbit is the next big milestone for NASA. The US space agency is eager to see the construction of the Lunar Lander Starship (HLS) to facilitate the progress of the Artemis program. NASA has publicly delayed the first crewed landing on the moon until September 2026, and previously announced that SpaceX would need to conduct a fuel transfer test in the first quarter of 2025 to meet that date.
But it is clearly not expected that we will see an orbital refueling test in that time frame; Because before that, a lot of preliminary work needs to be done.
To test fuel transfer in space, SpaceX must launch a “target” starship into near-Earth orbit, followed by a “predator” starship. The two rockets would then dock, connect, and in an unprecedented event, the hunter starship would transfer significant amounts of supercooled fuel to the target starship. Finally, the rockets are separated and each one performs a de-orbit maneuver.
Completing the orbital fuel transfer mission will likely require the completion of a second launch tower in South Texas to launch the Starship Hunter. In addition, SpaceX must finish building and testing docking mechanisms, quick disconnects, navigation sensors, and hot gas thrusters.
SpaceX is working fast and is undoubtedly making progress on many aspects of the Starship project. However, the company has not yet set a date for testing the orbital fuel transfer. According to two familiar sources, SpaceX is targeting “next year” for testing; As a result, optimistically, we are at least one year away from that amazing event. Regardless of the outcome of the test, it is likely that SpaceX will conduct multiple versions of the test to optimize the fueling process.
Relaunch of the Superheavy (early 2026)
SpaceX has now recovered Starship’s first stage booster, and company engineers are recovering invaluable information about the rocket’s performance and hardware wear and tear. This booster will no longer fly; But one of the first stages, which will be contained in the coming months, may fly for the second time.
Elon Musk announced on the X social network after controlling the superhighway that it is likely that Starship will achieve the reusable capability of both rocket stages in 2025, which is a critical development needed to transform life into a multiplanetary species. The comment indicates that SpaceX wants to fly the Superheavy and the upper stage again next year; But the presented timeline seems optimistic, especially for the upper stage.
By looking at history, we can get some clues about when to expect a superheavy booster to relaunch. When SpaceX landed the first Falcon 9 rocket in December 2015, it took a little more than 15 months to finally re-use a first stage of the rocket in March 2017. Starship development is more urgent and SpaceX now has much more resources; But at the same time, Super Heavy is a much bigger and more complex rocket than Falcon 9. SpaceX can be expected to spend more time testing a first stage booster before returning it to the launch pad to limit the risk of damage to its ground infrastructure.
SpaceX is also rapidly improving the design of its boosters; As a result, the missiles that land today may not be the same ones that fly again, and will be replaced by more improved versions. For these reasons, it is probably at least another year before the Super Heavy will fly again.
Ground infrastructure and liquid oxygen
No specific date can be set for the completion of the infrastructure required to support repeated Starship launches; Because this will happen over time. However, achieving this goal will definitely not be easy.
According to Elon Musk, SpaceX plans to build two launch towers in South Texas and two in Florida. These four towers will likely be the ground infrastructure needed to support the Artemis program and fly multiple refuelers to perform lunar landings. Building these towers requires time-consuming paperwork in the form of working with the US Space Force in Florida and completing environmental reviews from the Federal Aviation Administration.
Launching four Starship rockets in one day would consume all of America’s liquid oxygen production capacity for that day
Another important but less noted issue is access to the basic items needed to launch a starship. The superheavy booster alone carries about 3,400 tons of supercooled fuel, and the starship needs about a third of that amount. A large part of this huge amount of fuel is liquid oxygen (LOX), and every Starship launch seriously damages the production of this substance in the United States, which is consumed by various customers, including hospitals.
In other words, launching four Starship rockets in one day would consume all of the US’s liquid oxygen production capacity for that day. As a result, SpaceX must find a way to increase liquid oxygen production and ensure that large volumes of this material are transported to South Texas and the future Starship launch facility in Florida.
Long-duration flight test (late 2026)
Since the release of the first versions of the Artemis program timeline in August 2021, NASA has consistently mentioned the long-duration flight test of the starship. At that time, the orbital fuel transfer test was scheduled to take place in the fourth quarter of 2022, and the long-duration flight test approximately 6 months later. As a result, we are now nearly three years behind schedule.
Although NASA has provided few details about the long-duration flight test, the test is likely designed to demonstrate the Starship rocket’s ability to fly near the Moon. It is necessary for the starship to have the ability to inject itself into the lunar orbit; Because NASA astronauts will be launched in the Urine spacecraft in the initial Artemis missions and will dock with the starship in lunar orbit a few days later.
Due to possible delays due to adverse weather conditions and technical problems related to the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, the starship should be able to roam around the moon for up to 100 days, waiting for the crew to arrive. During this time, the starship must remain self-propelled in a habitable state, preventing significant boiling of its liquid oxygen and methane fuel.
NASA and SpaceX will likely finalize the design of the lunar version of Starship after long-duration flight testing is completed.
Unmanned lunar landing (early to mid-2027)
The most important test of the starship before returning humans to the surface of the moon is the unmanned lunar landing. During this trip, the starship will leave the near-Earth orbit with full fuel and travel to the moon. After a certain period of time, the rocket will try to land vertically near the south pole of the moon.
There are several challenges related to such a landing; But one of the most important concerns is the possibility of the missile overturning. To avoid such an accident, the starship must find a relatively flat surface to land on. In this mission, a cargo for testing the special elevator for transporting astronauts to the surface of the moon will be carried and unloaded from the spacecraft.
Taking off from the surface of the moon is a decisive test to prove the functionality of the lunar starship
After a few days on the lunar surface, the starship will enter the most critical part of its mission, the ascent from the moon. The lunar module of the Apollo spacecraft used storable fuels “erosin 50” and “nitrogen tetroxide”, which, like methane and liquid oxygen, did not require storage at super-cold temperatures. The challenge for the starship is that it must lift off the surface of the moon without a launch tower or ground support equipment.
Taking off from the surface of the moon is a decisive test to prove the functionality of the lunar starship. Depending on the success of this test flight, SpaceX and NASA may feel they need to repeat the unmanned landing before carrying out the Artemis 3 mission.
Manned lunar landing (September 2028)
If all goes well, NASA should fulfill the original promise of the Artemis program and send two astronauts to the lunar surface in 2028. That date is two years later than NASA’s current goal of September 2026, and still seems optimistic. Successfully achieving this goal is an extremely difficult task for SpaceX and the US space agency. If significant failures occur, such as the destruction of launch towers or mishaps during space refueling, the landing on the moon will certainly face further delays.
Naturally, some people may wonder why SpaceX and NASA are investing in such a complex lunar landing; While the lunar module used in the 1960s was made and used much simpler. The simple answer to this fair question is that those early lunar landers, like the other hardware used in the Apollo program, such as the powerful Saturn V rocket and the Apollo capsule, were disposable vehicles. This issue caused the cost of the Apollo program to skyrocket after a short period of time.
One of the current goals of NASA is a stable return to the moon, and the reuse of the necessary hardware is considered a necessary condition to achieve this goal. In addition, the Apollo program lacked the capacity to send large pieces of hardware to the moon. Even if the Apollo lunar module was repurposed to carry cargo, it was able to carry a maximum of almost 5 tons of cargo; While a reusable starship can deliver 200 tons of cargo from the earth to the surface of the moon.
If NASA utilizes the Starship’s capacity in the best possible way, the Artemis program could revolutionize space travel. But getting to that point requires a lot of effort. Fortunately, Elon Musk has dedicated all of SpaceX’s resources to the Starship project, and thanks to NASA’s support, there will be no more worries about a lack of funding. There is still a long way to go to exploit the full capacity of Starship; But SpaceX engineers have proven to date that they can handle any challenge.